Busan - “Unprecedented progress” or “dismal failure”?

There are varying views on the outcome of the recently concluded Indian Ocean Tuna Commission (IOTC) sessions in Busan, Korea. The 14th Annual Meeting decided on many things in addition to tuna stock sustainability, ranging from sharks to seabirds. Though there is consensus that resolutions on banning landings of endangered thresher sharks and mitigation of seabird catches were very positive and proactive in nature, those on tuna stock conservation garnered mixed reactions from many quarters.

IOTC’s scientific community had recommended that bigeye tuna catches should be limited to 110 000 mt and yellowfin tuna to 300 000 mt.  Implementation modalities for this are to be finalised by the 2012 meeting, once the process of setting country allocations are finalised. There was also agreement on a time-area tuna closure for 2011 and 2012 while building a process to improve data and quota allocation criteria, expansion of the IOTC list of IUU vessels, port state control measures and market related measures, while developing a fund to facilitate developing country participation in IOTC meetings.

Meanwhile, Seychelles’ proposal for a ban on tuna discards to discourage the practice of trawlers discarding catches to make room on-board for higher value fish did not make it through, to the dismay of some developing Indian Ocean states which felt the by-catch has much to do with food security for many of them.

“Strides forward were made last week by the Indian Ocean Tuna Commission for the protection of the fish stocks in the Indian Ocean” a release by EU commented and went on to state that the measures taken in Busan were “… probably the most far reaching undertaken by IOTC since its conception in 1996”. It further stated that “all stemmed from EU’s proposal and were made possible thanks to the EU’s progressive leadership and close cooperation with all IOTC members, particularly coastal developing states”.

Not everyone was that kind and positive. Conservation organisations such as the International Seafood Sustainability Foundation (ISSF) had hopes that a catching quota would be established for yellowfin at least. As a step towards more sustainable fisheries along the African Indian Ocean coast, the IOTC decided to extend the protected limits off the Somali coast. This was ridiculed by the WWF as it felt this has not much impact in limiting fishing pressure on the already over-fished stocks.

Irrespective of the divergence of the views and the reported inadequacies of the meeting’s outcome, there is broad consensus that the Busan meeting marked a milestone in moving towards a more resource friendly Indian Ocean, catering for the long-term needs of the countries bordering it.

Dawn of 2010 ushers in a cluster of Regional FTAs for Asia

It is said that increased trade liberalisation creates winners and losers on both sides.  The beginning of the new decade saw several mega trading blocks coming into effect in Asia. The ASEAN-China FTA, with a population of 1.9 billion and ASEAN-India FTA with around 1.6 billion which came into effect as from 1 January 2010 would undoubtedly shape trade in Asia in the new decade.

In addition, the date is also significant for six ASEAN nations or ASEAN-6, namely, Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand, which almost totally eliminated tariffs  under the Common Effective Preferential tariffs for the ASEAN Free Trade Area (CEPT-AFTA), with four more countries coming under the scheme by 2015. Meanwhile, the ASEAN-Australia-New Zealand FTA too went into effect on this day.

So who are the likely winners and who are the likely losers in the fisheries industry? Considering the volatility in the global economic scenario nobody can predict this with certainty or any degree of accuracy. Within ASEAN, tariffs for fish and fishery products have been already lowered to the minimum.  FTAs with India and China would open up both these markets for ASEAN fishery products while Indian exports to China will have competition from ASEAN exports. Indian raw material could be sought by ASEAN for re-export to China.

Needles to say, 2010 has ushered in an era with much uncertainty to regional economies in Asia. The fisheries sector, with a widening gap in supply and demand, is expected to survive any turmoil, although it may have to operate on thin margins due to the heavy competition market liberalisation would bring in. An Indian trade specialist has recently quoted “FTA is more politics rather than economics. We have to wait for another five years to see the impact on trade, the economic bite will only come later”.