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A new climate-population model developed by NOAA scientists to study rising ocean temperatures and fishing rates could also forecast the impact of climate change and fishing on other fisheries. Understanding and quantifying the effect of climate change on populations, in combination with the effect of exploitation, is a major challenge to rebuilding and maintaining sustainable fisheries in the coming decades. Some fish populations will increase and others decrease as a result of climate change. According to the researchers, the effects of climate on fisheries must be identified and understood, included in the scientific advice to managers, and factored into fishery management plans if sustainable exploitation is to be achieved. Atlantic croaker (Micropogonias undulatus) is a coastal marine fish inhabiting the east coast of the United States with a US$8 million annual commercial fishery. Previous studies have shown a strong link between croaker abundance and winter temperatures. Atlantic croaker spawn in the coastal areas and larvae enter estuaries in Delaware Bay, Chesapeake Bay, and Pamlico Sound 30 to 60 days after hatching. Juveniles spend their first winter in these estuarine nursery habitats. Temperature during this winter period is very important to juvenile survival. With ocean temperatures expected to increase through the 21st century, the researchers developed the population model for Atlantic croaker based on the hypothesis that recruitment, or survival of juveniles to adulthood, is determined by winter water temperature. Although the model developed by the researchers does not include all potential environmental complexities, the recruitment hypothesis on which it is based is supported by both laboratory and field work, and is consistent with current fishery population models. For various temperature and fish population scenarios over the next 90 years to 2100, the researchers forecast that at current levels of fishing, the spawning population of Atlantic croaker would increase between 60 and 100%, the centre of the population would shift 50 to 100 km northward, and the maximum sustainable yield would increase 30 to 100%. Fishery management does not operate on these long time scales, and shorter-term forecasts are required. A major challenge is developing climate models that forecast on shorter timer scales than the current 50 to100 years.

 

 

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